INCREASING THREAT FOR MODERATE SNOW EARLY THIS WEEKEND – WHAT ABOUT FEBRUARY?

The overall theme for the past few days has been MUCH colder, with below zero temperatures for portions of the northeast as well as very heavy lake effect snows over the past 72 hours, both of which have not been seen much at all so far this winter. After a brief warmup with some rain tomorrow, the colder weather will return, as well as an increasing THREAT of a moderate snowfall (3+ inches) Friday night into Saturday for the Mid-Atlantic north of the Mason-Dixon line. This will precede a significant warm up the following week (Jan 23), which will last about 5-6 days. The pattern for February is becoming more and more interesting, as there are signs of a negative NAO and Greenland blocking returning for the first time this winter. This was the wildcard I had discussed in my last in-depth post, and if this should occur, would mean a greater chance of bigger east coast snowstorms. I’m going to try to post a more in-depth discussion in the next 1-2 days, after a few more model runs and more in depth analysis – being on call this weekend has taken its toll…

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