7:30 PM – The storm is winding down and after this last deformation band comes through from west to east, it should be over for the most part in the next 3 -4 hours. WIth that said, I’m really going to try to grade myself on each major storm we have this year (for me that means at least 6 inches).
Here was my final call last night:
Overall, I think this was pretty good. Nevermind that I had been arguing that this storm could happen since last weekend. Granted, I was thinking more along the lines of a few inches for the Lehigh Valley, and maybe 8 or 10 for the Poconos max, nothing like we saw today. This was based on the the fact that a similar (yet warmer) storm had occurred back in October 2008, the far more accurate European versus the GFS in the 72-120 hour time frame when multiple runs showed a large storm, and the QPF the moidel was showing. I bet that this amount of moisture could overcome the warm ground/sun angle/”it’s October,” etc, and let’s be honest, happened to bet correctly. One thing is for sure though – I’ll go down with the Euro in that time frame when it comes to its handling of southern energy. The GFS crushed the shortwave eventually responsible (and actually there ended up be 3 separate shortwaves that phased) for today’s storm, while the Euro maintained it, and the GFS eventually caught on. Irish’s blog a few days ago did an excellent job at illustrating this. This phase allowed the trough to deepen, heights to rise on the east coast, and a negative tilt to develop:
Regrading my forecast above, I actually busted by about 2 or 3 inches in parts of the Lehigh Valley, but was pretty much dead on in the Poconos. When Bobby pointed out (and for those of you that haven’t already, I recommend following his site on facebook, http://www.facebook.com/Lehighvalleyweatherpatrol, because his analysis is excellent) that the high was stronger and further west this morning, it turned out to be a few degrees colder, and those few extra inches of snow just before and after noon were the difference. I’m assuming PHL will get at least a coating out of the last band as it passes through given it’s after dark. Just north and west of the city, I think 2-5 inches was a pretty good call. And I’m not aware of anyone down closer to the shore that had any accumulating snow. The elevation aspect also worked out well – just ask Wenner, near Quakertown, who has at least 9 or 10 inches by now I’m sure at 500 feet. Just a few miles away in the valley down towards Lansdale they probably have 3 or 4 inches less than that. So overall, given the difficulty and sheer unprecidence of this storm, I give myself an A-. Probably some of my best work (but don’t worry, I’m sure I’ll be more disappointing at some point in the near future).
Now for some pictures, which were taken just before dark when we had about 10 inches on the ground. We’ve since gotten about 2 more and likely end up around 13 inches or so once this last band clears the area (incidently thundersnow was just reported by Bobby in south Allentown about 10 minutes with this band).
And this is how we build a snowman out here in the sticks in the Lehigh Valley….
One more thing – I still can’t believe this happened in October. And I believe there’s plenty more where this came from, especialy toward the end of November and definitely in December.