Given that we’re about 48 hours from the peak of the storm, here’s my first call map:
Although this is rather conservative given what most of the models are now showing, I’m taking into account the time of year, the fact that part of the storm will be to start and part of it will occur during daylight hours, and the relatively warm ground. Elevation will also play a major role as someone at 300 or 400 feet may only get 3 inches, while at 700 or 800 feet could easily see double that. Please also note that these totals could and may actually go up based on what I’m seeing now. The individual ensemble members of the latest GFS and European models have been further west and closer to the coast with the track of the low, which leads me to believe this may throw heavier amounts of precipitation back into the northwestern parts of the area. The storm tract this year has been one which has been closer or even on the coast in comparison to last year. I just don’t see how the I-95 cities get a large amount of snow given this setup. That’s not to say they won’t get any snow, but an inch or two at the end of the storm seem most likely right now. It is possible that the changeover occurs more quickly than forecasted, and the snow comes down very heavily and accumulates regardless, giving the I-95 corridor 3 or 4 inches, but at the moment I don’t think that’s as likely. Just north and west of I-95 and as one goes above 500 feet, that will change in a major way. The heavy wet snow combined with the leaves which are still largely on the trees will cause some tree to come down and power outages – but Hurricane Irene may actually have helped us in a sense as many of the weaker trees came down during that storm just a few weeks ago. Second call will be out tomorrow morning, time permitting, with my final call tomorrow night.